Before It Breaks: Using a “Premortem” to Reduce Risk and Drive Innovation

Years ago, I worked with an academic dean who was committed to his school and wanted its success but was also quite risk-averse and at times frozen by fear of failure. As a result, problem solving was often paralyzed and getting new initiatives started was nearly impossible. Frequently, the first response to any new idea was “no – it won’t work” or “no – we can’t do that,” and the frustrations among the more creative and innovative colleagues built.

The dean’s principal dilemma at the time was that the accreditation body for his programs was concerned there were too many students per faculty in his school, and that, as a result, student learning outcomes would be compromised. Further, faculty felt overwhelmed by the number of first-year students they had to engage in order to get the desired number of qualified students to formally enter the school at the beginning of the second (sophomore) year. The dean knew this was an untenable situation; he wanted me to help him with a solution.

Admittedly, I have a tendency to move into problem solving mode too quickly. Sometimes, I turn on my “solution creation mode” without asking enough questions, gathering enough data, or appreciating context fully – all of which can result in an under-developed plan or response.

One day, returning from a work trip and killing time before the flight home, I picked up a copy of the Harvard Business Review which contained the solution I needed: Performing a Project Premortem by Gerry Klein (September 2007). The article talked about the high rate of failure of projects due to the reluctance of people to speak up in the planning phases of an initiative.  The dean was not wrong to be concerned, but there were ways to mitigate risk while moving towards a solution.

The goal for the premortem exercise is to encourage stakeholders to identify possible risks of a solution and explain the dangers moving ahead would create. It’s an empowering exercise – the task asks people to use their expertise to identify concerns, consider the degree and consequences of the risk, and help assess whether each risk is surmountable, and if so how.

The academic dean, the head of advising, interested faculty and some key operational enrollment professionals gathered in a conference room for a few hours one winter afternoon to engage in a premortem exercise.  On the table for discussion was the development of a “direct major admission program” – one which would enable first-year students to be admitted directly to a major within the school, based on their pre-college academic record. Together we identified weaknesses in the plan, spent time thinking through possible alternatives, and created more detailed processes.

The direct major admit program for this discipline was implemented for the entering class 18 months following, allowing plenty of time to roll out and implement the strategy. It proved successful for several years – until demographics shifted the landscape and new strategies were yet again required.

The premortem proved to be a helpful exercise to improve a proposed initiative, interrogate the plan, involve stakeholders and, perhaps most importantly, reduce risk. 

Premortem exercises provide a structured way to anticipate and address risks before they derail a project. By inviting stakeholders to identify potential failure points and explore causes and solutions, the process fosters collaboration, trust, and informed decision-making. More than a risk management tool, it cultivates a culture of innovation and readiness, transforming uncertainty into opportunity.

Our experience illustrates why this approach matters. A solution that once worked—direct admission into a major—was effective for years until shifting demographics and student interests rendered it obsolete. New challenges emerged, requiring new answers. A premortem exercise equips institutions to test potential solutions before implementation, ensuring adaptability in a landscape where change is constant. Problems will never disappear—but with the right approach and processes, we can continue to stay ahead of them.